Nifty crosses 23,000 points in two days; will the market momentum continue?
The Nifty crossed 23,000 on signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, but risks from high volatility, foreign selling, and oil prices remain. Analysts say the market rally may remain weak and uncertain.
Stock markets have seen a slight recovery amid signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. The Nifty 50 has crossed the 23,000 mark in the past two trading days, having been experiencing significant volatility since the war began.
High crude oil prices and concerns about gas shortages had swayed the market for much of March. However, market sentiment has shifted following US President Donald Trump's statements hinting at a possible end to the war, boosting demand for riskier investments.
The Nifty 50 has surged strongly over the past two trading sessions, rising 794 points, or 3.52%, to 23,306,
clawing back a significant portion of its recent losses. Earlier this week, the index had slipped to its lowest level since April 2025.
Although the recovery has been sharp, the index has declined 7.5% so far in March, its biggest monthly decline since March 2020, when it fell 23.25%.
If the index closes the current month with a decline, it will be the fourth consecutive monthly decline. The previous four consecutive months of declines for the index were between October 2024 and February 2025.
Nifty's journey in the year 2026
Investors were expecting the Indian stock market to perform well in the first quarter of 2026 amid expectations of improved earnings.
However, issues arising from artificial intelligence (AI), unexpected announcements in the Union Budget 2026, and rising tensions in the Middle East have negatively impacted the market sentiment.
Due to war-related concerns, foreign investors turned net sellers in March, withdrawing ₹1.12 trillion so far, according to NSDL data.
These outflows have not only impacted the stock market but also pressured the rupee, which has fallen to an all-time low of 94 against the US dollar.
Will Nifty 50 be able to sustain the recent gains?
Analysts believe the sustainability of the current economic recovery will depend on the direction the war takes in the coming weeks, especially since both the US and Iran have set their own conditions for ending the conflict.
Siddharth Khemka, head of research for wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said the current recovery could remain fragile and will depend on further clarity about geopolitical events.
He also said that while softening crude oil prices and signs of talks have provided short-term relief, any change in the market environment, especially with regard to risks related to the energy infrastructure, could put pressure on the markets sharply.
Bajaj Broking said that volatility is likely to remain high in the near term due to uncertain global cues, stable crude oil prices, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The brokerage expects the index to remain in the range of 22,450 to 23,850 in the coming sessions.